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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly functions as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest resurgence receives the award. In reality, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

Yet this year's field is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and longtime strugglers improving in unison. During an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and fun season, he's facing multiple other exceptional candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still