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A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."